With the drama of the presidential election sucking the air out of the room, it’s easy to lose sight of local elections. But you’re here so, dear reader, you’re too smart to make that mistake. As everyone should know, all politics is local.

The filing deadline to run for City Council is today. Absent a VERY late filer, the field is set. But before we dig into the candidates, here are some numbers to keep in mind — the voter registration totals by party preference in Costa Mesa, as reported in July by the Orange County Registrar of Voters:

Only the Mayor, District 1, District 2 and District 6 are in play this time around. So keep those numbers in mind as we take a look at the candidates. Here we go:

Mayor: Incumbent Stephens takes on newcomer Peters

This year, incumbent Mayor John Stephens will face off against political newcomer, Jim Peters. Technically a third candidate, William C. Cox, has disclosed an interest in running for Mayor as well, but I can’t find hide or hair of an actual campaign. Cox also filed to run in 2022 but didn’t actually campaign, so perhaps this is just another phantom filing.

Peters, on the other hand, is definitely running. Interestingly, while Peters has been endorsed by Republican stalwart organization the Lincoln Club and former mayors Jim Righeimer and Steve Mensinger, he has not received the endorsement of the Orange County Republican Party as of this writing. Maybe his paperwork is in the mail? In any event, Peters doesn’t have much of a public record except that I’m pretty sure he popped up in the Orange County Register a few years back. If it is the same Peters, it will be interesting to see how he pivots from a clear interest in national election integrity issues to local ones.

Stephens, on the other hand, has been formally endorsed by the Orange County Democratic Party. A long time ally of former Costa Mesa Mayor Katrina Foley, Stephens now has several years under his belt as Mayor and a record in his own right.

Stephens will come armed with a campaign apparatus that trounced John Moorlach 55%-45% in 2022. Moorlach is a moderate Republican with a lot of name recognition, so Stephens’s campaign clearly knows what it is doing. He’s also done the yeoman’s work to earn goodwill in the community during his time as Mayor. Hardly a day goes by when he isn’t attending a ribbon cutting or a city event — with cameras in tow, of course. But as a former resident committee member, I have to report that he’s gotten it done when the cameras are off, too. He almost always showed up to those meetings and he participated in earnest. His retail politics are excellent and it’s going to be tough for a newcomer to match that.

District 1: Two Mesa Verdeans will vie for a rare open seat

You might recall that back in February current District 1 Council Member, Don Harper, announced his intention to resign his seat, citing a need to spend time with an ailing family member. That issue must have resolved itself because Council Member Harper has quietly stayed in his seat throughout the Spring and Summer, such that it is likely he’ll now serve out the remainder of his term.

But Harper hasn’t filed to run again, so District 1 will have an open election between another newcomer, Mike Buley (who, at the time of this writing, does not appear to have a campaign website yet – I’ve linked his Instagram page instead — UPDATE: his website is up and it’s here!), and the current Chair of the Costa Mesa Planning Commission, Adam Ereth. Buley, a plaintiff’s attorney that lives in Mesa Verde, has been endorsed by the Orange County Republican Party. Like Peters he has no former political experience and an even lighter digital paper trail, so it remains to be seen what issues he’s likely to focus on.

Ereth, in contrast, is well known to Costa Mesa political junkies thanks to his current position as Chair of the Planning Commission. While he doesn’t have any endorsements yet — he filed within the last week, so his candidacy is still relatively new — I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up endorsed by the Democratic Party. He received the local Democratic Party endorsement when he ran unsuccessfully for the Mesa Water District in 2022 and there is no evidence he’s distanced himself from the party in the interim.

I expect this to be a close race. On the one hand, District 1 is demographically dominated by the planned community Mesa Verde, which tends to skew Republican in terms of voter registration. On the other hand, Ereth holds a powerful and high profile position on the Planning Commission, and he’s been careful (in the opinion of this writer, too careful) to plot a moderate, unoffensive course during his time there. If he receives the backing of the Democratic Party he will be a force to be reckoned with, as the Democrats have built a very successful local get-out-the-vote (GOTV) apparatus.

District 2: Incumbent Gameros doesn’t draw a challenger

Loren Gameros is running for re-election unopposed. Gameros is a union guy — not just in terms of leaning, but in terms of his actual profession. So it’s no surprise he has unwavering, and very intimidating, support of the local private and public unions. That said it is disappointing to see no one step up to challenge him. This gives local Democrats a further advantage of allowing resources earmarked for his race to be funneled elsewhere.

District 6: A 2020 rematch between two Eastside Jeffs

This race features a rematch from 2020 between incumbent and Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Harlan and challenger Jeff Pettis. The Democratic Party of Orange County and the Republican Party of Orange County have endorsed each of them respectively. Unlike 2020, where Harlan squared off against multiple opponents that likely split the conservative vote, this one will be a one-on-one match up.

Structurally speaking this election looks a lot like the race in District 1. Like Mesa Verde, the Eastside is reasonably well-off, Republican-leaning district and there are no third (or fourth) candidates in the mix to put either candidate at an obvious disadvantage. However, unlike District 1, incumbency is likely to be a strong factor in favor of Harlan. My sense is that Costa Mesa is reasonably happy with their current government, and often that is enough in low-information races like this one for an incumbent to survive. And as I mentioned above Harlan will also have the backing of a well-organized local political party, while Pettis… likely will not.

Sadly for the political process as a whole, the Republican Party has not been as aggressive in putting together a ground game to challenge the Democrats. Republicans have been steadily losing ground in the voter registration battle and the city is now majority Democrat. My sense is that the party itself here is somewhat in disarray, though if that’s because of rivalries at the national level or closer to home, I couldn’t say. There have been some signs of life, such as the We Are Costa Mesa group (which looks to be a thinly veiled Republican GOTV campaign) that’s been making the rounds, but that group has mostly focused on Mesa Verde thus far.

In any event Harlan is likely to have a big organizing advantage so, all else equal, I think he has the upper hand to keep his seat.

So now that we have the candidates — some stray observations

Alright, so we know who the candidates will be. And if that’s all you wanted from this post, feel free to stop reading now. But I’ve been thinking about this upcoming election quite a bit so, for my own sake, I thought I’d jot down some things I’m watching as we head into November. Feel free to read on if you are curious.

1. The Democrats will hold onto the City Council majority no matter what

Yeah, I know that City Councils are technically “non-partisan”. But as you can see, the reality is that local Democratic and Republican Parties dominate candidate selection and support.

At present the Democrats hold a commanding 6-1 majority on the current City Council. While four seats are up for grabs, the Republicans have only named challengers for three of them. This means that, even if all of the Republican candidates prevail, they will still be in the minority. Yes, holding the Mayor’s seat matters in terms of being able to run City Council meetings on his own terms. But, as we discussed in the past, the manager-managed system of city government that we have in Costa Mesa severely limits the Mayor’s ability to influence policy unilaterally.

And even if the Republican challengers win their seats, something that should give conservatives or moderates pause is that the resulting remaining Democratic majority is likely to be much more left-progressive than the current majority. Stephens and Harlan are two of the more moderate Democrats within the six-member bloc. Without them on the dais, the center of gravity of the resulting Democratic majority will lurch left, leading to a more polarized Council and one that is likely to take the City in an even more progressive direction for the next two years. If you want a preview of what that could look like, Huntington Beach has had similar 4-3 energy (in a conservative direction) for the past couple of years. And the results have been, well, volatile.

But hey, maybe that’s worth it to you. And the Republicans picking off just one or two seats in this election would obviously make the climb to a majority in 2026 that much easier. So if you are a right or center-right voter, I guess you’ll have to pick your poison.

2. What’s not on the ballot: Any local ballot initiative

Notably absent from the election is a local ballot initiative, such as either the very popular Measure Y or Measure Q, or the very controversial Measure K. This stands in stark contrast to our neighbors, many of whom are voting on lightning rod issues (like over in Huntington Beach) or matters of serious, immediate concern like sales tax hikes. Without these kinds of attention-grabbing matters on the ballot, one wonders if the GOTV effort will be a little trickier for both parties.

That said, there are certainly some interesting State-level ballot initiatives that might perk voters’ ears, such as the initiative to reform Proposition 47, the initiative that infamously reduced many crimes related to retail thefts of less than $950 in value from felonies for misdemeanors. Proposition 36, among other things, looks to reform Proposition 47 by upgrading such crimes back to felonies for repeat offenders. Proposition 47 has been blamed for perceived uptick in retail theft. There have been some spectacular local examples unfortunately so it wouldn’t surprise me if some people went to the polls only to voice their opinion on this issue.

3. The one-on-one match ups are a litmus test for the local Republican Party, which risks total City Council extinction

Unlike in past years, such as 2022’s District 3 election or, as mentioned above, 2020’s District 6 election, the Republicans have at least managed to narrow their own fields such that they don’t have multiple candidates splitting the vote.

However, with that explanation (excuse?) out of the way this time around, this election will reveal the extent to which the Republican Party can mount effective local campaigns. In that sense, Buley’s campaign in District 1 feels like a must-win. If Republicans can’t hold onto that seat — one currently held by the lone Republican, in a lean-R district, with an opponent lacking the incumbency advantage — then it will be time to ask some hard questions.

And if the Republicans get shut out completely, and the Democrats take City Hall 7-0? Then the time for questions will be over. Failing to seat a Republican in the only districts where the they have a registration advantage would be political malpractice of the highest order. Almost half of the partisan registered voters in the city would be left without a champion, not only on the dais but also with respect to every commission, committee, and political appointment. Worst still, without a competitive process, accountability at City Hall will continue to suffer. Take a look at the rest of California if you want to see what it looks like in the long run when Democrats are left to police themselves.

But maybe the local Republicans already understand their mortal peril and they are planning accordingly to storm the 2024 election… right? 😅

4. The elephant the room: the coattails of the presidential election

Will the brawl at the top of the ballot affect the local races? Honestly, at the moment it is hard to say. The competitive race between current State Senator Dave Min and former State Assembly Member Scott Baugh for the seat vacated by Katie Porter for the 47th Congressional District should see plenty of federal money poured into the local campaigns. Both Min and Baugh have been making appearances at the campaign stops for both the local Democratic and Republican City Council candidates, respectively, so the engagement is there.

As for whether the match up between Biden Harris and Trump will affect local races, I’m going to go out on a limb and say: absence a complete blow up by one of the candidates, it won’t affect matters much at all. Once upon a time I was a student of American elections (I know, I’m an insufferable nerd) and if I recall correctly, big, “wavy” elections are far more likely to occur at midterm elections, where down-ballot votes are best interpreted on a referendum on the incumbent. Presidential election years, on the other hand, are so dominated by polarization that big swings one way or the other are unlikely. So the enthusiasm for each candidate — or hatred for each opponent — may cancel each other out.

But this a weird year. Anything could happen. So buckle up.

Correction: Thanks Mike Buley for providing your website – it’s been updated above!